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Tuyển tập các báo cáo nghiên cứu về y học được đăng trên tạp chí y học quốc tế cung cấp cho các bạn kiến thức về ngành y đề tài: "Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox | Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling BioMed Central Open Access Review Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox Hiroshi Nishiura 1 Stefan O Brockmann2 4 and Martin Eichner 3 Address Theoretical Epidemiology University of Utrecht Yalelaan 7 3584CL Utrecht The Netherlands 2Department of Epidemiology and Health Reporting Baden-Wurttemberg State Health Office Nordbahnhofstr. 135 D-70191 Stuttgart Germany 3Department of Medical Biometry University of Tubingen Westbahnhofstr. 55 D-72070 Tubingen Germany and 4Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology Robert Koch Institute Seestr. 10 D-13353 Berlin Germany Email Hiroshi Nishiura - H.Nishiura@uu.nl Stefan O Brockmann - BrockmannS@rki.de Martin Eichner - martin.eichner@uni-tuebingen.de Corresponding authors Published 20 August 2008 Received II April 2008 Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 2008 5 20 doi 10.1186 1742-4682-5-20 Accepted 20 August 2008 This article is available from http www.tbiomed.cOm content 5 1 20 2008 Nishiura et al licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http creativecommons.org licenses by 2.0 which permits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in any medium provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract Background Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data. Main findings First critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the .
