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Estimated policy effects on Vietnam’s exports to its major APEC trade partners: A gravity model approach

This paper carries out an empirical assessment of the effects of a set of policy determinants of Vietnam’s exports to its five major Asia Pacific trade partners (China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and US) over 23 years from 1989 to 2011. | 2 | Eric Iksoon Im & Tam Bang Vu | 2-14 Estimated Policy Effects on Vietnam’s Exports to Its Major APEC Trade Partners: A Gravity Model Approach ERIC IKSOON IM University of Hawaii-Hilo, Hawaii, USA Email: eim@hawaii.edu TAM BANG VU University of Hawaii-Hilo, Hawaii, USA Email: tamv@hawaii.edu ARTICLE INFO Received: May 29, 2013 Received in revised form June 4, 2013 Accepted: June 15, 2013 Keywords: economic integration trade liberalization exchange rate anti-corruption activity ABSTRACT This paper carries out an empirical assessment of the effects of a set of policy determinants of Vietnam’s exports to its five major Asia Pacific trade partners (China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and US) over 23 years from 1989 to 2011. In doing so, a gravity model is employed, which includes two sets of variables: one for gravity variables, and the other for policy-related variables. The latter includes four policy variables: real exchange rate, trade liberalization, anti-corruption activity, and WTO membership status. The effects of real exchange rate and anti-corruption activity are each specified as a linear function of the degree of trade liberalization to capture the indirect effects of trade liberalization on Vietnam’s exports over time. The effect of trade liberalization on Vietnam’s exports is specified as linear dependent on its WTO membership status to capture its direct effect and the additional effect attributable to Vietnam’s accession to WTO on its exports. We find that Vietnam’s trade liberalization has direct and indirect positive impacts on its trades, and its accession to WTO has a positive effect as well, contrary to some criticism otherwise. Estimated Policy Effects on Vietnam’s Exports JED No.217 July 2013| 3 1. INTRODUCTION Vietnam has enjoyed high export growth rates ever since its open-door policy was adopted in 1986. About two decades later in 2007, it joined the WTO, which was well received by Vietnamese enterprises looking for more favorable