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After studying this chapter, you should be able to: Identify the internal and external forces for change in an organization; discuss the technological, cultural, strategic, structural, and systems dimensions of change; analyze the process managers should use in evaluating the need for change;. | Judgment in Managerial Decision Making 8e Chapter 12 Improving Decision Making Copyright 2013 John Wiley & Sons 1 Strategies for Better Decisions Use decision-analysis tools Acquire expertise Debias your judgment Reason analogically Take an outsider’s view Understand others’ biases Urge others to improve decisions As we have reviewed throughout this course, we are subject to a variety of biases that limit the effectiveness of our decisions. This has important implications for the outcomes of organizations. In the book Moneyball, the story of the Oakland Athletics success in the early 2000s is described. Many general managers in baseball relied on the intuition of scouts to guide their decision-making. However, this intuition was often biased and led to inefficiencies. Billy Beane, the general manager of the Oakland Athletics, brought in an economics graduate named Paul DePodesta to help him exploit these inefficiencies by approaching the valuation of players with a quantitative . | Judgment in Managerial Decision Making 8e Chapter 12 Improving Decision Making Copyright 2013 John Wiley & Sons 1 Strategies for Better Decisions Use decision-analysis tools Acquire expertise Debias your judgment Reason analogically Take an outsider’s view Understand others’ biases Urge others to improve decisions As we have reviewed throughout this course, we are subject to a variety of biases that limit the effectiveness of our decisions. This has important implications for the outcomes of organizations. In the book Moneyball, the story of the Oakland Athletics success in the early 2000s is described. Many general managers in baseball relied on the intuition of scouts to guide their decision-making. However, this intuition was often biased and led to inefficiencies. Billy Beane, the general manager of the Oakland Athletics, brought in an economics graduate named Paul DePodesta to help him exploit these inefficiencies by approaching the valuation of players with a quantitative analysis of their performance. Many managers continue to rely on interviews as a diagnostic tool for predicting future performance despite the evidence that interviews are less effective than using diagnostic performance data. In order to prevent these mistakes, managers can use several strategies to improve their decision making: Use decision-analysis tools to help with quantifying decisions into expected value. Acquire expertise to improve decision-making strategies. Debias their judgment by using some helpful practices. Reason analogically to help see the relationship between different types of problems. Take an outsider’s perspective to help prevent optimistic biases. Understand others’ biases to determine when others may be prone to errors and adjust for these errors. Urge others in their organization to improve their decisions by understanding how they may be biased. 2 Use Decision-Analysis Tools Linear models What are they? Why they help decisions Why we resist them Improving .
