TAILIEUCHUNG - The Role of Rainfed Agriculture in the Future of Global Food Production

Trigeneration. The combination of gas engines with absorption chillers is an optimal solution for generating air conditioning and/or refrigeration. The waste heat from the mixture intercooler, the engin oil, the engine cooling water, and the exhaust gas serves as drive energy for the chillers. Combining a cogeneration plant unit with an absorption refrigeration system allows utilization of seasonal excess heat for cooling. Using trigeneration, it is possible to achieve overall efficiencies (power and air conditioning and/or refrigeration) of up to 75%, increasing both annual capacity and overall plant efficiency. Figures 11 and 12 are graphical representations of both the electrical and thermal energy available from GE’s 50 and 60 Hz Jenbacher. | EPTD DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 90 The Role of Rainfed Agriculture in the Future of Global Food Production Mark Rosegrant Ximing Cai Sarah Cline and Naoko Nakagawa Environment and Production Technology Division International Food Policy Research Institute 2033 K Street . Washington . 20006 . February 2002 EPTD Discussion Papers contain preliminary material and research results and are circulated prior to a full peer review in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment. It is expected that most Discussion Papers will eventually be published in some other form and that their content may also be revised. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank Susanne Neubert and John Pender for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This paper examines future prospects for rainfed cereal production and its importance in the evolving global food system. The IMPACT-WATER integrated waterfood modeling framework developed at IFPRI is applied to assess the current situation and plausible future options of irrigation water supply and food security primarily on a global scale. This model simulates the relationships among water availability and demand food supply and demand international food prices and trade at regional and global levels. Globally 69 percent of all cereal area is rainfed including 40 percent of rice 66 percent of wheat 82 percent of maize and 86 percent of other coarse grains. Worldwide rainfed cereal yield is about metric tons per hectare which is about 65 percent of the irrigated yield metric tons per hectare . Rainfed areas currently account for 58 percent of world cereal production. The baseline projection from the IMPACT-WATER model which incorporates our best estimates of the policy investment technological and behavioral parameters driving the food and water sectors shows that rainfed agriculture will continue to play a major role in cereal production accounting for about one-half of the increase in cereal .

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