TAILIEUCHUNG - THE DRIVING FORCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: PANEL DATA EVIDENCE FOR THE OECD COUNTRIES

Overall, the incoming data suggest that the recovery of output and employment in the United States has slowed in recent months, to a pace somewhat weaker than most FOMC participants projected earlier this year. Much of the unexpected slowing is attributable to the household sector, where consumer spending and the demand for housing have both grown less quickly than was anticipated. Consumer spending may continue to grow relatively slowly in the near term as households focus on repairing their balance sheets. I expect the economy to continue to expand in the second half of this. | OECD Economic Studies No. 33 2001 11 THE DRIVING FORCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH PANEL DATA EVIDENCE FOR THE OECD COUNTRIES Andrea Bassanini and Stefano Scarpetta TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction. 10 The determinants of economic growth. 11 Basic determinants of growth the accumulation of physical and human capital. 13 Research and development. 15 Macroeconomic policy setting and growth. 16 Financial development and growth. 20 International trade and growth. 20 Specification of the growth equation and estimation technique. 21 The estimated growth equations. 21 The econometric technique. 23 Regression results and interpretation. 24 The role of convergence and capital accumulation in the growth process. 26 The role of macroeconomic policy and institutions on growth. 27 Research and development. 30 Policy and institutional influences on capital accumulation. 32 Some quantitative implications of the regression results. 34 The long-run effect of policy and institutional changes. 34 Explaining cross-country differences in average growth rates. 36 The role of policy and institutions in shaping the growth process over the past two decades. 39 Concluding remarks. 39 Appendix 1. The Policy-and-Institutions Augmented Growth Model. 47 Appendix 2. The data. 50 Bibliography. 53 The authors wish to thank Phillip Hemmings for his help in comparing the present results with those in the empirical literature and Catherine Chapuis-Grabiner for excellent statistical assistance. Sanghoon Ahn Sven Blondal Gavin Cameron Jorgen Elmeskov Michael Feiner Dirk Pilat Ron Smith Jonathan Temple Nicholas Vanston and Ignazio Visco also provided many helpful comments. A previous version of this paper was presented at the Séminaire d Economie Monétaire Internationale Paris 24 November 2000 CEPREMAP DELTA and at the 16th Annual Congress of the European Economic Association 29 August to 1 September 2001 and we acknowledge useful comments from participants. The opinions expressed in the paper are those of the .

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