TAILIEUCHUNG - Assessment of the Budget 2010 Economic and Fiscal Outlook

Finally, all the countries that successfully used austerity to boost growth had much higher interest rates than the United States does at present. This meant that there was substantial room for rates to decline following the imposition of austerity. The differences between the United States in 2010 and the countries that have successfully gone the route of fiscal austerity to boost growth are large and are very central to the adjustment process. In short, in the current economic environment, the circumstances do not exist for fiscal austerity in the United States to lead to more rapid growth. While. | BUREAU DU_______________________ DIRECTEUR PARLEMENTAIRE DU BUDGET ________________OFFICE OF THE PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICER Assessment of the Budget 2010 Economic and Fiscal Outlook Ottawa Canada March 11 2010 pbo-dpb Assessment of the Budget 2010 Economic and Fiscal Outlook The Parliament of Canada Act mandates the Parliamentary Budget Officer PBO to provide independent analysis to the Senate and House of Commons on the state of the nation s finances government estimates and trends in the national economy. The following note provides an assessment of the economic and fiscal outlook presented in Budget 2010. Prepared by Russell Barnett Jeff Danforth Chris Matier and Brad Recker The authors thank Mostafa Askari and Kevin Page for helpful comments. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors. i Assessment of the Budget 2010 Economic and Fiscal Outlook Key Points This note assesses the economic and fiscal outlook presented in Budget 2010. PBO s assessment of the Budget 2010 outlook is however limited by the lack of detailed information and data pertaining to the Government s assumptions that underlie the translation of the private sector economic forecast into the fiscal forecast presented in Budget 2010. To assess the fiscal projections in Budget 2010 PBO has prepared a fiscal outlook based on the same private sector economic forecast used by the Department of Finance Canada to prepare the Budget 2010 fiscal projections. As a result the source of difference between PBO s fiscal projections and those in Budget 2010 is limited to the assumptions used to translate the economic forecast into fiscal projections. PBO believes that the private sector economic outlook on which Budget 2010 fiscal projections are based provides a reasonable basis for fiscal planning. That said PBO disagrees with the overall characterization of the Canadian economic situation and outlook in Budget 2010. Based on IMF estimates and projections the severity of .

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