TAILIEUCHUNG - Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

Occupation cluster analysis is a relatively new approach in regional development. In contrast to industry clusters that focus on what businesses produce, occupation clusters focus on the knowledge, skills and abilities of the individuals who work for those businesses. Like the industrial cluster tool, this tool enables users to explore their regional economy from a different perspective. Like the other tools, its main advantage is flexibility: users can define custom regions and make comparisons easily. The swift transformation taking place in the global economy makes occupation cluster analysis particularly valuable. The global integration of markets has eliminated many regional competitive. | Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty Scott R. Bakera Nicholas Bloomb and Steven J. Davisc 1st January 2013 Abstract Many commentators argue that uncertainty about tax spending monetary and regulatory policy slowed the recovery from the 2007-2009 recession. To investigate this we develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty EPU built on three components the frequency of newspaper references to economic policy uncertainty the number of federal tax code provisions set to expire and the extent of forecaster disagreement over future inflation and government purchases. This EPU index spikes near consequential presidential elections and major events such as the Gulf wars and the 9 11 attack. It also rises steeply from 2008 onward. We then evaluate our EPU index first on a sample of 3 500 human audited news articles and second against other measures of policy uncertainty with these suggesting our EPU index is a good proxy for actual economic policy uncertainty. Drilling down into our index we find that the post-2008 increase was driven mainly by tax spending and healthcare policy uncertainty. Finally VAR estimates show that an innovation in policy uncertainty equal to the increase from 2006 to 2011 foreshadows declines of up to in GDP and million in employment. JEL No. D80 E22 E66 G18 L50 Keywords economic uncertainty policy uncertainty business cycles Acknowledgements We thank Matt Gentzkow Kevin Hassett Greg Ip John Makin Johannes Pfeifer Itay Saporta Sam Schulhofer-Wohl Jesse Shapiro Erik Sims Stephen Terry and many seminar and conference audiences for comments. We thank Sophie Biffar and Kyle Kost for extensive research support and the National Science Foundation the Sloan Foundation and the Initiative on Global Markets and the Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy at the University of Chicago and the State for financial support. a Stanford srbaker@ b Stanford Centre for Economic Performance CEPR and NBER nbloom@ c .

• Quản trị kinh doanh
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• abandoning traditional
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• tax breaks
• financial incentives