TAILIEUCHUNG - UAE ECONOMIC REPORT

A. It is the developed countries that, for whatever reason, take more taxes per dollar of income from their citizens. Now, I would not interpret that evidence to necessarily mean that high taxes (and high government spending) cause prosperity, but it is a troubling fact that the people who say low taxes are the key to prosperity must confront. In fact, the positive correlation is prob- ably largely due to factors, such as education level, that vary across countries and are connected with prosperity as well as facilitate the collection of taxes. So that positive correlation be- tween prosperity and the tax ratio is not necessarily causal in either direction | Bank Audi 1 JANUARY 04 2013 Audi Saradar Group ECONOMICS UNITED ARAB EMIRATES UAE ECONOMIC REPORT SUSTAINED RECOVERY PROSPECTS DESPITE LINGERING CHALLENGES TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 1 Introduction 2 Economic Conditions 3 Real Sector 3 External Sector 8 Public Sector 9 Financial Sector 10 Concluding Remarks 18 CONTACTS Research Marwan S. Barakat 961-1 977409 Jamil H. Naayem 961-1 977406 Salma Saad Baba 961-1 977346 Fadi A. Kanso 961-1 977470 Nathalie F. Ghorayeb 961-1 964047 Sarah F. Borgi 961-1 964763 Steady though somehow slow recovery in the Emirates economy Amidst an uncertain global economic environment the UAE economy showed relative signs of resilience with the IMF estimating growth at in 2012. Higher crude supply and oil prices provided a timely boost to public revenues amid rapid expansion. The recovery of the non-hydrocarbon economy continued over the past year backed by strong trade tourism logistics and manufacturing at large. The UAE has been accordingly reaping the benefits of its early efforts to diversify its domestic economy. Fiscal accounts on a consolidation stance The UAE entered a phase of fiscal adjustment which aims at unwinding the stimulus seen during recent years and lowering the high breakeven oil prices without hindering economic recovery. Indeed the growth in public expenditures as well as that of public revenues retreated in 2012 as the UAE takes a breather from the 2011 oil markets boom as well as the massive counter cyclical policy it had embarked on to avoid potential spillovers from conflict-stricken countries. As a result of growth in revenues outpacing that of spending the UAE general government fiscal accounts are set to sustain a high surplus of circa of the 2012 GDP for the third consecutive year compared to in 2011 and in 2010. .

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