TAILIEUCHUNG - Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

Tham khảo sách 'growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers', công nghệ thông tin, cơ sở dữ liệu phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | WP 13 1 Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers Olivier Blanchard and Daniel Leigh INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2013 International Monetary Fund WP 13 1 IMF Working Paper Research Department Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers Prepared by Olivier Blanchard and Daniel Leigh Authorized for distribution by Olivier Blanchard January 2013 Abstract This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author s and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author s and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that in advanced economies stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected with the relation being particularly strong both statistically and economically early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis. JEL Classification Numbers E32 E62 H20 H5 H68 Keywords Fiscal policy forecasting taxation government expenditure output fluctuations Author s E-Mail Address oblanchard@ dleigh@ 2 Contents Page I. II. Forecast Errors and Fiscal Consolidation A. Specification and B. III. A. Choice of Economies and Role of B. Controlling for Other Actual vs. Planned Fiscal C. Different Forecast IV. A. Government Spending and B. Components of Aggregate Spending and C. Alternative V. .

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