TAILIEUCHUNG - Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030

Renewing your policy When we offer to renew your policy: we will send you a notice before the policy expiry date; we will tell you in writing if there are any changes to the policy; we may require an additional premium if you make a claim in the short period between the time we calculated the renewal premium and the expiry of your policy, or if you tell us about changes to your policy details in that period and we tell you they will increase your renewal premium. If the additional premium is not paid, we. | Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth Worldwide 1960-2030 Joyce Dargay Dermot Gately and Martin Sommer January 2007 Abstract The speed of vehicle ownership expansion in emerging market and developing countries has important implications for transport and environmental policies as well as the global oil market. The literature remains divided on the issue of whether the vehicle ownership rates will ever catch up to the levels common in the advanced economies. This paper contributes to the debate by building a model that explicitly models the vehicle saturation level as a function of observable country characteristics urbanization and population density. Our model is estimated on the basis of pooled time-series 1960-2002 and crosssection data for 45 countries that include 75 percent of the world s population. We project that the total vehicle stock will increase from about 800 million in 2002 to over 2 billion units in 2030. By this time 56 of the world s vehicles will be owned by nonOECD countries compared with 24 in 2002. In particular China s vehicle stock will increase nearly twenty-fold to 390 million in 2030. This fast speed of vehicle ownership expansion implies rapid growth in oil demand. Keywords vehicle ownership transport modeling transport oil demand JEL Classification R41 - Transportation Demand Supply and Congestion Q41 - Energy Demand and Supply. Joyce Dargay Institute for Transport Studies University of Leeds Leeds LS2 9JT England Corresponding Author Dermot Gately Dept. of Economics New York University 19 W. 4 St. New York NY 10012 USA Telephone 212 998 8955 Fax 212 995 3932 Martin Sommer International Monetary Fund 700 19th St. NW Washington DC 20431 USA MSommer@ 1 1. INTRODUCTION Economic development has historically been strongly associated with an increase in the demand for transportation and particularly in the number of road vehicles with at least 4 wheels including cars trucks and buses . This

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