TAILIEUCHUNG - The Accuracy of the Juster Scale for Predicting Purchase Rates of Branded, Fast-Moving Consumer Goods

The Rowntree's which emerged from the 19th century was typical of contemporary British enterprise and had no clear commercial strategy. Business strategy comprises the explicit calculation by a company of the most beneficial policy to adopt towards suppliers, rivals, buyers, and consumers [17]. Rowntree's continuance of traditional managerial and sales practices allowed the more dynamic Cadbury's to. | Marketing Bulletin 1994 5 47-52 Research Note 1 The Accuracy of the Juster Scale for Predicting Purchase Rates of Branded Fast-Moving Consumer Goods Mike Brennan and Don Esslemont This paper examines the suitability of the Juster Scale for predicting demand for different brands of fast moving consumer goods within two product categories. The products used in the study were three brands of canned soup Watties Campbells and Heinz and four brands of yoghurt Ski Yoplait Fresh and Fruity and No-Frills . The purchase probability data was obtained from the 1992 Palmerston North Household face-to-face Omnibus survey. Respondents were reinterviewed by telephone four weeks after the omnibus survey to obtain recalled estimates of actual purchases. The Juster scale overestimated purchases both for product categories and for brands. Purchase rates for soup were overestimated by 5 and for yoghurt by 6 . The overestimate for individual brands were slightly larger the average over all 7 brands being 8 .Although the accuracy of the predictions of purchase rates was disappointing the predictions of brand share were more accurate. This study has demonstrated that it is possible to obtain quite accurate estimates of market share for branded products using the Juster Purchase Probability Scale as well as accurate estimates of the purchase rate for each brand. Keywords Juster Scale purchase probabilities intentions estimates Introduction Dissatisfied with the accuracy of predictions of purchase behaviour based on socio-economic and demographic variables attitudes and purchase intentions researchers in the 1960 s shifted their attention to purchase probabilities. This led to the development of a purchase probability scale commonly known as the Juster Scale Juster 1966 . Although various forms of the Juster Scale have been used see Day Gan Gendall Esslemont 1991 for a review the standard form consists of an eleven point numerical scale ranging from 0 to 10 each point associated with both

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