TAILIEUCHUNG - The Nature And Feasibility Of War And Deterrence

An evaluation of the impact of a thermonuclear war and a description of some of the risks that might cause decisionmakers to weigh the alternatives of whether or not to go to war (namely, genetic problems, postwar medical problems, and long-term recuperation). The kinds of deterrence discussed are (1) deterrence of a direct attack, (2) the use of strategic threats to deter an enemy from engaging i | THE NATURE AND FEASIBILITY OF WAR AND DETERRENCE Herman Kahn Physics Division P-1888-RC January 20 I960 Second Printing April i960 THE RAND CORPORATION Santa Monica California Note This paper is a slightly enlarged and revised version of an article of the same title published in the Stanford Research Institute Journal for the fourth quarter of 1959. It summarizes some of the points discussed in a forthcoming book by Mr. Kahn to be published by the Princeton University Press in i960. It was written as a private venture while the author was on leave from The RAND Corporation at the Center of International Studies Princeton University. An abbreviated version of the SRI article was printed in . News and World Report December 21 1959. While this paper is published by The RAND Corporation as a convenience to the author and to fill the requests of the many groups to which he has lectured on this topic the views expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Corporation. 1 THE NATURE AND FEASIBILITY OF WAR AND DETERRENCE A nuclear war is too horrible to contemplate too mutually annihilating to consider. Even if both sides believe this a potential aggressor still has a capability of staging an unlimited number of Aiunlchs. For only one side to believe this whether correctly or not might lead to the most catastrophic mistake of history to either a Pearl Harbor or an Armageddon. We are now entering the fifteenth year of the nuclear era. Yet we are increasingly aware that we have a great deal to learn about the possible effects of a nuclear war. We have even more to learn about conducting international relations in a world in which force tends to be increasingly more dangerous to use and therefore increasingly less usable. Moreover the basic foreign and defense policies formulated early in the nuclear era badly need review and examination. This paper summarizes sometimes rather cursorily some of the points discussed by the author in

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