TAILIEUCHUNG - Accident Precursor Analysis And Management

Risk analysis for well known, well documented and steady-state systems (or stable phenomena) can be performed by methods of statistical analysis of available data. These include, for example, maximum likelihood estimations, and analyses of variance and correlations. More generally, these methods require a projection in the future of risk estimates based on a sufficient sample, | Advances Engineering Risk Analysis Page 1 of 40 Ch 16 060502 V04 16 The Engineering Risk Analysis Method and Some Applications M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell ABSTRACT Engineering risk analysis methods based on systems analysis and probability are generally designed for cases in which sufficient failure statistics are unavailable. These methods can be applied not only to engineered systems that fail . new spacecraft or medical devices but also to systems characterized by performance scenarios including malfunctions or threats. I describe some of the challenges in the use of risk analysis tools mainly in problem formulation when technical human and organizational factors need to be integrated. This discussion is illustrated by four cases ship grounding due to loss of propulsion space shuttle loss caused by tile failure patient risks in anesthesia and the risks of terrorist attacks on the US. I show how the analytical challenges can be met by the choice of modeling tools and the search for relevant information including not only statistics but also a deep understanding of how the system works and can fail and how failures can be anticipated and prevented. This type of analysis requires both imagination and a logical rational approach. It is key to pro-active risk management and effective ranking of risk reduction measures when statistical data are not directly available and resources are limited. Advances Engineering Risk Analysis Page 2 of 40 Ch 16 060502 V04 CONTENTS Engineering Risk Analysis Method Imagination and Rationality Pro-Active Risk Management Early Technology Assessment and Anticipation of Perfect Storms Remembering the Past While Looking Ahead A Brief Overview of the Method and Formulation Challenges The Challenge of Structuring the Model Dynamic Analysis Imagination and Rationality Incomplete Evidence Base Data The Tool Kit Extension of RA to Include Human and Management Factors The SAM Model Example 1. Ship Grounding Risk Influence Diagram and SAM Model

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