TAILIEUCHUNG - The Decline in the U.S. Personal Saving Rate: Is It Real and Is It a Puzzle?

Alice searches several web sites that archive scientific publications (Figure 1). The Piggy Bank extension in Alice’s web browser shows a “data coin” icon in the status bar for each site, indicat- ing that it can retrieve the same information items in a “purer” form. Alice clicks on that icon to collect the “pure” information from each web site. In Figure 2, Piggy Bank shows the information items it has collected from one of the sites, right inside the same browser window. Using Piggy Bank’s browsing facilities, Alice pinpoints a few items of interest and clicks the corresponding “Save” buttons to. | The Decline in the . Personal Saving Rate Is It Real and Is It a Puzzle Massimo Guidolin and Elizabeth A. La Jeunesse Since the mid-1990s the national income and product accounts personal saving rate for the United States has been trending down dropping into negative territory for three months during the past two years. This paper examines measurement problems surrounding two of the standard definitions of the personal saving rate. The authors conclude that despite these measurement problems the recent decline of the . personal saving rate to low levels seems to be a real economic phenomenon and may be a cause for concern for several reasons. After examining several possible explanations for the trend advanced in the recent literature the authors conclude that none of them provides a compelling explanation for the steep decline and negative levels of the . personal saving rate. JEL D10 E21 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review November December 2007 ỡỡ 6 pp. 491-514. The national income and product accounts NIPA personal saving rate computed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis BEA includes households and other nonprofit institutions and entities such as charities and churches and it is calculated simply by taking the difference between disposable personal income essentially incomes of all kinds minus taxes and personal consumption expenditures outlays including non-mortgage interest payments then dividing this quantity . personal saving by disposable personal income see Figure 1 .1 In the past two decades the widely reported NIPA personal saving rate for the United States has been trending down dropping from averages of around 9 percent in the 1980s to approximately 5 percent in the 1990s to almost zero in the first years of the new century. Recent reports in the media have alerted the public that the . saving 1 In Figure 1 the dotted curve represents the NIPA personal saving rate reported by the BEA after the revision of July 31 2007. rate as .

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