TAILIEUCHUNG - Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies

The plan of the paper is as follows. The next section presents the new euro area harmonized data on bank interest rates and some evidence on cross country dispersion. The third section reports two econometric exercises measuring cross country similarities; the Italian case is analyzed as benchmark of integration, comparing the euro area inter country variation with the intra country variation of Italian regions. The fourth section provides regressions carried out using national determinants of differences in bank interest rates. The fifth section repeats the exercise on the homogeneity of euro area bank rates on “cleaned up” data, . after controlling for the national factors influencing the level of interest rates. The final section summarizes our findings. . | MAGYAR TUDOMÂNYOS AKADÉMIA KỒZGAZDASÂGTUDOMÁNYIINTEZET ll1 INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS HUNGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES MŨHELYTANULMÁNYOK DISCUSSION PAPERS MT-DP - 2006 15 Central Bank Interventions Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies BALAZS ÉGERT INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS HUNGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES BUDAPEST 2006 Discussion papers MT-DP - 2006 15 Institute of Economics Hungarian Academy of Sciences KTI IE Discussion Papers are circulated to promote discussion and provoke comments. Any references to discussion papers should clearly state that the paper is preliminary. Materials published in this series may be subject to further publication. Central Bank Interventions Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies Balazs Égert Oesterreichische Nationalbank EconomiX at the University of Paris X . Nanterre the William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan and begert@ ISBN-10 963-9588-89-X ISBN-13 978-963-9588-89-9 ISSN 1785-377X Publisher Institute of Economics Hungarian Academy of Sciences Devizapiaci és szobeli intervenció Európa feltõrekvố gazdaságaiban Balázs Égert Osszefoglaló Ez a tanulmány a devizapiaci intervenciók eredmenyességét vizsgálja meg Horvátország Csehország Magyarország Románia Szlovákia és Tõrõkország esetére az . event study módszer segítségével. Az eredmények azt mutatják hogy az intervenciók csak rõvidtávon és a hazai deviza íelértékelốdésére nehezedo nyomás enyhítése esetén sikeresek. Az intervenciókkal õsszehangolt jegybanki kommunikáció és kamatlépések azonban jelentosen megnõvelik az intervenciók eredményességét. Az intervenciók árfolyamra gyakorolt tényleges hatása a horvát cseh magyar és kisebb mértékben a román jegybank által bejelentett hivatalos céllal egybeesik. Ez csak részben mondható el Szlovákia és Tõrõkország esetében. Úgy találjuk hogy Horvátország kivételével a jegybankok a devizapiaci intervenciókat tõbbnyire sterilizálják. Ugyanakkor

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