TAILIEUCHUNG - Does the Global Fireman Inadvertently Add Fuel to the Fire? New Evidence from Institutional Investors’ Response to IMF Program Announcements

A mutual fund is a type of investment fund. An investment fund is a collection of investments, such as stocks, bonds or other funds. Unlike most other types of investment funds, mutual funds are “open-ended,” which means as more people invest, the fund issues new units or shares. A mutual fund typically focuses on specific types of investments. For example, a fund may invest mainly in government bonds, stocks from large companies or stocks from certain countries. Some funds may invest in a mix of stocks and bonds, or other mutual funds | Does the Global Fireman Inadvertently Add Fuel to the Fire New Evidence from Institutional Investors Response to IMF Program Announcements Shang-Jin Wei Columbia University CEPR and NBER and Zhiwei Zhang IMF This Version January 21 2009 Abstract Fighting global financial crises is a primary charge of the International Monetary Fund IMF . Yet it has often been criticized to have hindered rather than helped the recovery of many countries in a crisis by demanding policy changes that may not be appropriate for them in that particular moment. Such actions would tend to damage investor confidence. Using monthly data on investment in 94 developing countries by 168 institutional investors during 1996-2005 this paper re-assesses this important question. We find that international investors tend to revise upward an economy s outlook after an IMF program is announced and increase their investment in the country. Patterns of concurrent asset price movement suggest that it is unlikely due to a bailout moral hazard effect. Based on this evidence we conclude that the IMF has typically restored rather than reduced investor confidence. Key words capital flows mutual funds and IMF JEL codes F2 and F4 Shang-Jin Wei corresponding author Professor of Finance and Economics Graduate School of Business Columbia University Uris Hall 619 3022 Broadway New York NY 10027 USA. Email at webpage wei. Zhiwei Zhang Research Department Hong Kong Monetary Authority Hong Kong. Email zzhang at . We thank Brett House Nuno Limao and seminar participants at the IMF for helpful comments. The paper represents personal views of the authors and not those of any other organization that the authors are affiliated with. - 2 - I. Introduction While the 2007-2008 financial crisis may have started in developed countries economic crises in emerging markets are a more frequent occurrence for much of the last three decades and is coming back again. The International .

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