TAILIEUCHUNG - Technical Analysis and Mutual Funds. Testing Trading Rules

This demand feature bridges the gap between borrowers and lenders. It allows governments to issue the long-term bonds they prefer, while making that debt eligible for purchase by money funds that must invest in short-term securities. Sound like the SIVs we discussed earlier? VRDNs are like SIVs in many respects, but with some key differences. First, there is generally less concern about the credit quality of the bonds in a VRDN than the securities held in a SIV—governments are usually pretty good payers. Second—and most importantly—the credit guarantees and put options in a VRDNare provided by independent, high quality financial institutions, meaning that VRDN holders are not dependent on the. | Technical Analysis and Mutual Funds. Testing Trading Rules Sotiris Zontos Skiadas Christos and Yiannis Valvis Technical University of Crete University Campus Kounoupidiana 73100 Chania Greece Phone 30-821-40115 Fax 30-821-37362 email zontos@ ABSTRACT This paper attempts to develop strategies that enable portfolio managers to improve market timing by learning to recognize leading indications of forthcoming changes. The aim of this study is the testing in a Mutual Fund series of the predicting ability of a popular technical exchange tool the Moving Average Rule. A short-term and a long-term moving average are used for the creation of buy and sell signals of mutual funds. 2891 predictions were made for the same time-series for different values of short-term and long-term moving averages and the profitability of this method was calculated. The method was proved profitable if no buy and sell cost was counted. The Two Moving Average Rule by itself is efficient only for the companies that administrate the respective mutual fund and not for the single investor. It is presented the triple moving average rule which possibly can be a solution for this problem. KEYWORDS Technical Analysis Mutual Funds Moving Average Rule Decision Making INTRODUCTION The decision-making process could break down into two separate stages-analysis and timing. Because of the high leverage factor in the future markets timing is especially crucial to successful trading. It is quite possible to be correct on the general trend of the market and still lose money. Because margin requirements are so low in future trading a relatively small price move in the wrong direction can force the trader out of the market with the resulting loss of all or most of that margin. In stock market trading by contrast a trader who finds him or herself on the wrong side of the market can simply decide to hold onto the stock hoping that it will stage a comeback at some point in the future. This is how many

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