TAILIEUCHUNG - Causal Reasoning in Medicine: Analysis of a Protocol

Some of the most useful applications of evolution often do not use evolutionary theory directly; instead they use technologies developed by evolutionary biologists. In par- ticular, methods for reconstructing phylogenies are being applied to genetic data with very practical results. HIV is especially susceptible to such methods because its fast- accumulating mutations create finely detailed phylogenies. For instance, certain cases of HIV could be traced back to a specific Florida dentist (Ciesielski et al. 1992). Phyloge- netic analysis also was used to falsify the hypothesis that HIV was introduced into Africa via polio vaccine (Weiss 2001). The SARS epidemic was traced quickly to a corona virus similar to one endemic in bats. | COGNITIVE SCIENCE 8 363-385 1984 Causal Reasoning in Medicine Analysis of a Protocol Benjamin Kuipers Massachusetts Institute of Technology Jerome p. Kassirer Tufts University The ability to identify and represent the knowledge that a human expert has about a particular domain is a key method in the creation of an expert computer system. The first part of this paper demonstrates a methodology for collecting and analyzing observations of experts at work in order to find the conceptual framework used for the particular domain. The second part develops a representation for qualitative knowledge of the structure ond behavior of a mechanism. The qualitative simulation or envisionment process is given a qualitative structural description of a mechanism and some initialization information and produces a detailed description of the mechanism s behavior. The simulation process has been fully implemented and its results are shown for a particular disease mechanisms in nephrology. This vertical slice of the construction of a cognitive model demonstrates an effective knowledge acquisition method for the purpose of determining the structure of the representation itself not simply the content of the knowledge to be encoded in that representation. Most importantly it demonstrates the interaction among constraints derived from the textbook knowledge of the domain from observations of the human expert and from the computational requirements of successful performance. 1. INTRODUCTION How does an expert physician reason about the mechanisms of the body We are exploring the hypothesis that the physician has a cognitive causal model of the patient a description of the mechanisms of the human body and how they influence each other. This causal model incorporating the ex- This research was supported in part by NIH Grant LM 03603 from the National Library of Medicine to the first author. Correspondence and requests for reprints should be sent to Benjamin Kuipers at MIT Laboratory for .

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• Futuristic Concept
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• Clinical trial
• Cell therapy
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