TAILIEUCHUNG - BUSINESS CYCLE ACCOUNTING BY V. V. CHARI, PATRICK J. KEHOE, AND ELLEN R. MCGRATTAN

The first prediction is that households facing self-control problems will tend to exhibit a decline in consumption between paydays. Intuitively, this is because dynamic inconsistency causes household members to repeatedly succumb to an urge for immediate consumption, and thus run out of money by the end of the pay period (the decline is exacerbated by an unwillingness or inability to borrow, an issue to which we return below). We formalize this prediction using the quasi-hyperbolic discounting model (see Laibson, 1997), which incorporates dynamic inconsistency by allowing for different discount rates over short and long time horizons. We test for a decline using our data on the timing of. | Econometrica Vol. 75 No. 3 May 2007 781-836 BUSINESS CYCLE ACCOUNTING By VVChari Patrick J. KEHOE AND Ellen R. McGrattan1 We propose a simple method to help researchers develop quantitative models of economic fluctuations. The method rests on the insight that many models are equivalent to a prototype growth model with time-varying wedges that resemble productivity labor and investment taxes and government consumption. Wedges that correspond to these variables efficiency labor investment and government consumption wedges are measured and then fed back into the model so as to assess the fraction of various fluctuations they account for. Applying this method to . data for the Great Depression and the 1982 recession reveals that the efficiency and labor wedges together account for essentially all of the fluctuations the investment wedge plays a decidedly tertiary role and the government consumption wedge plays none. Analyses of the entire postwar period and alternative model specifications support these results. Models with frictions manifested primarily as investment wedges are thus not promising for the study of . business cycles. KEYWORDS Great Depression sticky wages sticky prices financial frictions productivity decline capacity utilization equivalence theorems. In building detailed quantitative models of economic fluctuations researchers face hard choices about where to introduce frictions into their models to allow the models to generate business cycle fluctuations similar to those in the data. Here we propose a simple method to guide these choices and we demonstrate how to use it. Our method has two components an equivalence result and an accounting procedure. The equivalence result is that a large class of models including models with various types of frictions is equivalent to a prototype model with various types of time-varying wedges that distort the equilibrium decisions of agents operating in otherwise competitive markets. At face value these wedges

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