TAILIEUCHUNG - Accounting for Growth Jeremy Greenwood and Boyan Jovanovic

The linkage between model results and monitoring data can be complicated if monitoring programs are not designed to address which parameters should be monitored, timing of measurements, location, spatial scale, and resolution of measurements to match with model parameters. This is particularly valuable in the early stages of a project when the opportunity exists to alter the project to ensure long-term storage and improve efficiency. Monitoring data collected early in the project are often used to refine and calibrate the predictive model, improving the basis for predicting the longer-term performance of the project. Simulations have been used in Core R&D test projects, including Weyburn, Frio Brine Pilot, and West Pearl Queen (see Section ), and. | Accounting for Growth Jeremy Greenwood and Boyan Jovanovic Working Paper No. 475 July 2o00 UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER Accounting for Growth Jeremy Greenwood and Boyan Jovanovic May 1999 Forthcoming in New Directions in Productivity Analysis edited by Charles R. Hulten Edwin R. Dean and Michael J. Harper. Chicago University of Chicago Press for NBER . Abstract A satisfactory account of the postwar growth experience of the United States should be able to come to terms with the following three facts 1. Since the early 1970 s there has been a slump in the advance of productivity. 2. The price of new equipment has fallen steadily over the postwar period. 3. Since the mid-1970 s the skill premium has risen. Variants of Solow s 1960 vintage-capital model can go a long way toward explaining these facts as this paper shows. In brief the explanations are 1. Productivity slowed down because the implementation of information technologies was both costly and slow. 2. Technological advance in the capital goods sector has lead to a decline in equipment prices. 3. The skill premium rose because the new more efficient capital is complementary with skilled labor and or because the use of skilled labor facilitates the adoption of new technologies. Address all correspondence to Professor Boyan Jovanovic Department of Economics New York University 269 Mercer Street New York NY 10003. 1 1 Introduction The story of technological progress is the invention and subsequent implementation of improved methods of production. All models of growth incorporate this notion in some way. For example the celebrated Solow 1956 model assumes that technological progress and its implementation are both free. Technological progress rains down as manna from heaven and improves the productivity of all factors of production new and old alike. Based on his earlier model Solow 1957 proposed what has since become the dominant growth-accounting framework. Its central equation is y zF k l where y is output k and l .

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