TAILIEUCHUNG - Household Saving in China

So, even if it is desirable that the postal bank should attract funds in a confidence crisis, the systemic benefits will not be felt unless the “exit” side of the system is designed to assure prompt recycling. And, even if such recycling is sufficiently automatic to keep the postal bank’s role on the lending side completely neutral, distortions can still result unless prices are set to reflect fully the actual costs and risks of the products offered. One approach to both problems might be to revive the 19th-century European idea of postal savings as a sort of “narrow bank”: a bank that would invest only in. | Published in World Bank Economic Review September 2000 Household Saving in China Aart Kraay The World Bank First Draft November 1997 This Draft May 2000 Abstract China the world s largest and fastest-growing economy in recent years has also experienced national saving rates that are among the highest in the world. This paper considers a variety of statistical issues that cloud the measurement of aggregate and household saving in China and provides new empirical evidence on the importance of intertemporal considerations in explaining inter-provincial variation in household saving in China. This paper was prepared as part of a World Bank research project entitled Saving Across the World Puzzles and Policies . I am grateful to the project s organizers Norman Loayza Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel and Luis Servén for their encouragement and to Nick Lardy Lihong Wang the editor of this journal and three anonymous referees for their helpful discussions. The views expressed in this paper are the author s and do not necessarily represent those of the World Bank its executive directors or the countries they represent. 1. Introduction China the world s largest and fastest growing economy in recent years has also experienced saving rates that are among the highest in the world. Since the first steps towards economic reforms were taken in 1978 China s gross national saving rate has averaged 37 percent of GNP while its economy has expanded at a remarkable percent per year in per capita terms lifting 200 million Chinese out of absolute poverty. Rapid growth has been accompanied by an equally-rapid process of transition as China has progressed from a primarily rural agrarian and state-run economy to a more urban and industrial society in which the majority of economic interactions are governed by market forces. These transitions have had profound consequences for saving. Consider China s transition from plan to market. Before 1978 China s high saving rates averaging 27 percent of GNP .

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