TAILIEUCHUNG - Flow and Stock Effects of Large-Scale Treasury Purchases

If interest rates rise, however, the price sensitivity of non-amortizing callable bonds will ultimately approach the sensitivity of non-callable securities with the same final maturity. For example, the five, non-call two bond above initially will have the price sensitivity of a bond with a two-year final maturity. However, if interest rates continue to rise, the bond will eventually begin to depreciate like other securities with the same final maturity. Therefore, callable securities can lose value at an increasing rate as the security’s effective maturity becomes longer. . | Finance and Economics Discussion Series Divisions of Research Statistics and Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board Washington . Flow and Stock Effects of Large-Scale Treasury Purchases Stefania D Amico and Thomas B. King 2010-52 NOTE Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series FEDS are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series other than acknowledgement should be cleared with the author s to protect the tentative character of these papers. FLOW AND STOCK EFFECTS OF LARGE-SCALE TREASURY PURCHASES Stefania D Amico Thomas B. King Division of Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board Washington DC 20551 September 2010 ABSTRACT Using a panel of daily CUSIP-level data we study the effects of the Federal Reserve s program to purchase 300 billion of . Treasury coupon securities announced and implemented during 2009. This program represented an unprecedented intervention in the Treasury market and thus allows us to shed light on the price elasticities and substitutability of Treasuries preferred-habitat theories of the term structure and the ability of large-scale asset purchases to reduce overall yields and improve market functioning. We find that each purchase operation on average caused a decline in yields in the sector purchased of basis points on the days when these purchases occurred the flow effect of the program . In addition the program as a whole resulted in a persistent downward shift in the yield curve of as much as 50 basis points the stock effect with the largest impact in the 10- to 15-year sector. The coefficient patterns generally support a view of segmentation or imperfect substitution within the Treasury market. Contact amico@ .

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