TAILIEUCHUNG - Nine Out of Ten Non-Elderly Californians Will Be Insured When the Affordable Care Act is Fully Implemented

e Affordable Care Act (ACA) will significantly expand access to affordable health coverage in California starting in 2014. Californians with the lowest incomes will have access to coverage under the expansion of Medi-Cal, while millions of low- and middle-income families will be eligible for subsidies through the California Health Benefit Exchange (the Exchange). Demand for health insurance in the state will also increase as a result of the minimum coverage requirement. e level of enrollment in the new and expanded programs and the resulting share of Californians who gain coverage under the ACA will depend on a range of factors, including the ease of enrollment and retention, outreach strategies, and. | _UCLA CENTER FOR HEALTH POLICY RESEARCH_ uc BERKELEY LABOR CENTER CalSIM California Simulation of Insurance Markets RESEARCH BRIEF JUNE 2012 Nine Out of Ten Non-Elderly Californians Will Be Insured When the Affordable Care Act is Fully Implemented Ken Jacobs Greg Watson Gerald F. Kominski Dylan H. Roby Dave Graham-Squire Christina M. Kinane Daphna Gans and Jack Needleman The California Simulation of Insurance Markets CalSIM model is designed to estimate the impacts of various elements of the Affordable Care Act on employer decisions to offer insurance coverage and individual decisions to obtain coverage in California. It was developed by the UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education and the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research with generous funding provided by The California Endowment. The Affordable Care Act ACA will significantly expand access to affordable health coverage in California starting in 2014. Californians with the lowest incomes will have access to coverage under the expansion of Medi-Cal while millions of low- and middle-income families will be eligible for subsidies through the California Health Benefit Exchange the Exchange . Demand for health insurance in the state will also increase as a result of the minimum coverage requirement. The level of enrollment in the new and expanded programs and the resulting share of Californians who gain coverage under the ACA will depend on a range of factors including the ease of enrollment and retention outreach strategies and language accessibility. We used the California Simulation of Insurance Markets CalSIM model version to predict changes in health coverage in California under the ACA using two scenarios one based on typical responses by individuals and employers to expanded coverage offerings the base scenario and another based on a more robust enrollment and retention strategy planned by state coverage programs the enhanced scenario . Based on the results of our CalSIM model we .

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