TAILIEUCHUNG - The Stock Market and Investment

Capital planning plays a key role in banks’ business decisions. The cost of equity financing and return targets on shareholders’ funds shape banks’ capital allocation and product pricing. Given the importance of equity capital in absorbing losses, prudential regulators require banks to hold sufficient equity to cover risks. Regulation that motivates banks to raise equity financing when capital is cheap would promote the interests of long-term shareholders. All these considerations call for a better understanding of what drives the cost of bank capital. One way to gauge this cost of equity is to analyse expected stock returns. . | The Stock Market and Investment Robert J. Barro Harvard University Changes in stock prices have substantial explanatory power for . investment especially for longterm samples and even in the presence of cash flow variables. The stock market dramatically outperforms a standard q-variable because the market-equity component of this variable is only a rough proxy for stock market value. Although the stock market did not predict accurately after the crash of October 1987 the errors were not statistically significant. Parallel relationships for Canada raise the puzzle that Canadian investment appears to react more to the . stock market than to the Canadian market. A literature initiated by Tobin 1969 relates investment to q which is the ratio of the market s valuation of capital to the cost of acquiring new capital. An increase in the prospective return on capital or a decrease in the market s discount rate raises q and thereby increases investment. With a simple form of adjustment cost for changing the capital stock the optimal amount of current investment depends only on the current value of q. But more generally-for example with a time-to-build technology for the capital stock-current investment depends on current and lagged values of q see Hayashi 1982 and Abel and Blanchard 1986 . This article was prepared for presentation at the National Bureau of Economic Research conference on Stock Market Volatility Puerto Rico March 1989. This research was sponsored by the National Science Foundation. The author is grateful for comments from Fischer Black Changyong Rhee Bill Schwert and Larry Summers and for research assistance from Xavier Sala i Martin. Address reprint requests to Dr. Barre Department of Economics Harvard University Littauer 120 Cambridge MA 02138. The Review of Financial Studies 1990 Volume 3 number 1 pp. 115-131 1990 The Review of Financial Studies 0893-9454 90 The Review of Financial Studies V 3 n 1 1990 The growth rate of investment relates to

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