TAILIEUCHUNG - Credit at times of stress: Latin American lessons from the global financial crisis

It has been widely acknowledged that Bulgaria’s macroeconomic performance has changed dramatically since 1997. Macroeconomic and financial stability have been restored and economic activity started to recover; inflation was brought down to single-digit numbers, real incomes have been rising and the chronic fiscal gap has been closed. A CBA is an extremely rigid macroeconomic regime which hardens macro-budget constraints as it eliminates direct central bank credits to finance the budget deficit. It also hardens micro- budget constraints, in the first place in the banking system, as the central bank can no longer engage in refinancing commercial banks. However, so far. | BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS BIS Working Papers No 370 Credit at times of stress Latin American lessons from the global financial crisis by Carlos Montoro and Liliana Rojas-Suarez Monetary and Economic Department February 2012 JEL classification E65 G2. Keywords Latin America credit growth currency mismatches global financial crisis emerging markets financial resilience vulnerability indicators. BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements and from time to time by other economists and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website . Bank for International Settlements 2012. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 print ISSN 1682-7678 online Credit at times of stress Latin American lessons from the global financial crisis Carlos Montoro Liliana Rojas-Suarez Abstract The financial systems in emerging market economies EMEs during the 2008-09 global financial crisis performed much better than in previous crisis episodes albeit with significant differences across regions. For example real credit growth in Asia and Latin America was less affected than in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper identifies the factors at both the country and t he bank levels that contributed to the behaviour of real credit growth in Latin America during the global financial crisis. The resilience of real credit during the crisis was highly related to policies measures and reforms implemented in the pre-crisis period. In particular we find that the best explanatory variables were those that gauged the economy s capacity to withstand an external financial shock. Key were balance sheet measures such as the economy s overall .

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