TAILIEUCHUNG - The Breast Cancer Epidemic: Modeling and Forecasts Based on Abortion and Other Risk Factors

Vaccinating girls and women before sexual debut, and therefore before exposure to HPV infection, provides an excellent opportunity to decrease the incidence of cervical cancer over time. As these vaccines protect against HPV types responsible for about 70% of cervical cancers, there will be a continued need to screen women who have been vaccinated as well as those who have not been vaccinated. Therefore, a comprehensive approach to cervical cancer prevention and control should involve vaccinating girls and women before sexual debut, and screening women for precancerous lesions and treatment before progression to invasive disease | The Breast Cancer Epidemic Modeling and Forecasts Based on Abortion and Other Risk Factors Patrick S. Carroll . ABSTRACT Using national cancer registration dataforfemale breast cancer incidence in eight European countries England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland the Irish Republic Sweden the Czech Republic Finland and Denmark for which there is also comprehensive data on abortion incidence trends are examined and future trends predicted. Seven reproductive risk factors are considered as possible explanatory variables. Induced abortion is found to be the best predictor and fertility is also a useful predictor. Forecasts are made using a linear regression model with these explanatory variables. Previous forecasts using the same model and incidence data for years through 1997 for England Wales are compared with numbers of cancers observed in years from 1998-2004 in an Appendix. The forecast predicted of the cancers observed in 2003 and of those observed in 2004. The Challenge ofAbortion for Epidemiologists in Female Breast Cancer Research It is difficult for epidemiologists to discover women s abortion history. In any study the numbers of women who have had abortions maybe National data on abortions in most countries tends to be deficient with abortions underreported. Official abortion statistics in the United States2 and France3 are known to understate the numbers of legal induced abortions. The countries considered in this study are believed to have nearly complete official abortion counts. The long lag time for the development of breast cancer magnifies the problem. The average age of diagnosis is over 60 while most abortions and live births occur at ages under 30. The modern increase in breast cancer incidence is obvious at ages over 45 4 and Figure 1 for England Wales shows the increase is small below age 45. Abortion did not become legal in most Western countries until the 1970s and earlier abortions among older women are not .

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