TAILIEUCHUNG - Real Estate Investment In Turkey: Look Beyond Intanbul

Going forward, the upward pressure on rents is likely to continue, albeit at a moderate pace. The shortage of available land, coupled with very high land prices restricts further office space develop- ments, particularly in the CBD. Moreover, the current financial and economic slowdown means that fewer new enterprises will seek to enter the Turkish market in the next 24 months. The current supply pipeline will then limit rental growth. The significant rent differentials within Istanbul together with the economic slowdown will force some office occupiers to relocate to new, emerging locations on the Asian side. Within the core CBD area,. | tf G 3 tn uj c G 3 Õ Deutsche Bank Research August 26 2008 Real estate investment in Turkey Look beyond Istanbul International topics dbresearch Authors Zeynep Kudatgobilik 1 212 250-8524 Erich Ruppert Hochschule Aschaffenburg Ermina Topintzi 30 210 7256153 Tobias Just 49 69 910-31876 Editor Tobias Just Technical Assistance Sabine Berger Angelika Greiner Deutsche Bank Research Frankfurt am Main Germany Internet E-mail Fax 49 69 910-31877 Managing Director Norbert Walter The Turkish economy is in much better shape than six years ago. Real GDP expanded by almost 7 . over the last 5 years. However the Turkish economy remains vulnerable to external and domestic shocks. The domestic challenges are amplified by the global economic slowdown. GDP growth will remain between and for 2008 and 2009. Favourable long-term trend intact. Strong population growth better qualified employees deeper integration in the global flows of goods and capital and an ongoing process of macro- and microeconomic reforms promise an average growth rate of 5-6 . for the next 15 years. Retail property has benefited most from the economic upswing. Rising incomes of the increasingly urban population have helped changing the retail structure towards more western shopping formats. The still large supply pipeline is starting to bear supply-side risk for some Tier-I cities. Retail project developers will therefore have to focus on the smaller Tier-II cities where significant pent-up demand still offers investment opportunities. Strong growth in office demand expected. Ongoing structural change towards more services and especially the shortage of modern office supply are the foundation for strong demand for investment in office space over the next ten years. Not counting replacement demand we expect additional demand for modern office space in .

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