TAILIEUCHUNG - EXPLORING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION APPLICATIONS FOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Across the globe, organisations are spending increasing sums of money on executing projects and programmes. Managing change successfully has become a significant factor in organisational success, and investment in projects and programmes is integral to that success. However, many organisations still struggle to achieve success with the majority of their projects and programmes. Some believe that the effort and money spent in implementing PMOs has made a big difference in the level of success achieved in executing projects and programmes. Our research shows that around 70% of large organisations have some form of PMO. But our research also shows. | Article EXPLORING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION APPLICATIONS FOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT Young Hoon Kwaka and Lisa Ingallb aDepartment of Decision Sciences School of Business The George Washington University Washington DC USA bIBM Systems Technology Group Silver Spring MD USA Correspondence Young Hoon Kwak Associate Professor of Project Management Department of Decision Sciences School of Business The George Washington University Washington DC 20052 USA. E-mail kwak@ Abstract Monte Carlo simulation is a useful technique for modeling and analyzing real-world systems and situations. This paper is a conceptual paper that explores the applications of Monte Carlo simulation for managing project risks and uncertainties. The benefits of Monte Carlo simulation are using quantified data allowing project managers to better justify and communicate their arguments when senior management is pushing for unrealistic project expectations. Proper risk management education training and advancements in computing technology combined with Monte Carlo simulation software allow project managers to implement the method easily. In the field of project management Monte Carlo simulation can quantify the effects of risk and uncertainty in project schedules and budgets giving the project manager a statistical indicator of project performance such as target project completion date and budget. Keywordd Monte Carlo simulation project management risk analysis and management exploratory study Risk Management 2007 9 44-57. doi Risk Management 2007 9 44-57 2007 Palgrave Macmillan Ltd 1460-3799 07 rm Risk Management 45 Introduction The area of risk management has received significant recognition in the field of project management in recent years Kwak and Stoddard 2004 . Project managers and their superiors discovered that the process of identification analysis and assessment of possible project risks benefits them greatly in developing risk .

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