TAILIEUCHUNG - Market Outlook 2012 - 2013: BOM GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT

Competitiveness today must be geared to competitiveness tomorrow. There is untapped potential for the EU economy to be more innovative, productive and competitive whilst using fewer resources and reducing environmental damage. Less waste should be produced and more re-used and recycled in line with the practice of the best performing Member States. Greater resource efficiency would contribute to growth, jobs and enhanced competitiveness, with reduced costs for business as well as significant benefits for health and the environment, lower greenhouse gas emissions, contained energy bills and new opportunities created for innovation and investment. The EU is particularly well-placed to give policy the long-term dimension required | Market Outlook 2012 - 2013 JANUARY 2012 INSIGHT SERIES Some might argue that the past is best forgotten. But in the world of financial forecasting the past can provide important perspective on the present and valuable insights into what lies ahead. In this year s piece we ve taken a step back to examine the journey from the prior cycle peak in 2007 through the Great Recession of 2008-2009 up to today. From that vantage point we gain a clearer view on where we stand now and what the future may hold. And perhaps more important we present actionable ideas for positioning portfolios in the New Year. Separate Accounts Mutual Funds Collective Investment Trusts Pooled Funds UCITS Alternative Investments BMO Global Asset Management Market Outlook 2012 - 2013 Has the post-recession rebound simply paused or are we heading for a double-dip What if the world s major economies show little or no growth in 2012 Peak Trough Now and Next The peak of the last economic cycle occurred in June 2007. GDP was strong in many nations of the world and interest rates were much higher than today. Consumers and businesses were spending - and banks were lending to them. As with many economic recessions through history the decline from the top was swift and widespread with the trough occurring near the middle of 2009. Businesses began paring down expenses consumers pulled back spending and banks tightened the lending reins. The results were positive. By many measures the . economy is now at or above those prior-peak highs. However today s economy is also facing unique challenges that appear to threaten global growth. So what s next In this publication we look at the decline from 2007 to 2009 and then the events that drove the turnaround comparing where we stand now to where we were then. We also discuss the markets responses to government policy shifts and see that for the most part they have produced encouraging results. Then we examine the factors that appear to be causing a slowdown in .

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