TAILIEUCHUNG - Population Aging and Economic Growth in China

Most Cambodian elders have both living sons and daughters. Reflecting the higher mortality of males, including losses due to political violence associated with the Khmer Rouge period and its aftermath, the average number of surviving daughters modestly exceeds that of surviving sons. Some differences in the number of living children are evident according to sex, location and age of elders. Elderly men average larger numbers of surviving children than elderly women, reflecting the fact that men are far more likely to remarry than women in cases of marital dissolution. Thus men spend more time in reproductive unions. | Program on the Global Demography of aging Working Paper Series Population Aging and Economic Growth in China Judith Banister David E. Bloom and Larry Rosenberg March 2010 PGDA Working Paper No. 53 http pgda The views expressed in this paper are those of the author s and not necessarily those of the Harvard Initiative for Global Health. The Program on the Global Demography of Aging receives funding from the National Institute on Aging Grant No. 1 P30 AG024409-06. Population Aging and Economic Growth in China Judith Banister David E. Bloom and Larry Rosenberg March 2010 Executive Summary According to current UN projections the population of the world age 60 or older will be 2 billion by 2050. With populations aging in nearly all countries there has been widespread concern about the possible effects on economic growth and on the ability of countries to provide support for their elderly populations. In particular because the elderly are in general less economically productive than younger people a preponderance of old-age individuals would seem to suggest that a economic growth will be slower than in the past and b relatively smaller working-age cohorts of the future will be burdened by the need to care for and pay for the support of the elderly population. These concerns have found resonance in China where more than 30 of the population is expected to be age 60 or older in 2050. In part as a consequence of China s process of population aging to date the ratio of individuals age 15-64 to those younger and older which grew rapidly during the last few economic boom decades has reached its peak and is slated to decline rapidly in coming decades. Because a labor force that is large in size relative to the dependent population is plausibly crucial to rapid economic growth the decline of this ratio could conceivably herald economic difficulties. The roots of population aging in China are the same as elsewhere a low fertility rate rising life

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