TAILIEUCHUNG - Dire Strait? Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Confrontation and Options for U.S. Policy

Mixing quantitative and qualitative analysis, it explores a range of key factors that affect the ROC’s self-defense capabilities and suggests ways that the United States can effectively contribute to improving the odds in Taipei’s favor. This report was written as part of a project on assessing Taiwanese defense needs, sponsored by the Smith Richardson Foundation. Research for the report was conducted within the International | __Dire Strait Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Confrontation and __Options for . Policy David A. Shlapak David T. Orletsky Barry A. Wilson Supported by the Smith Richardson Foundation National Security Research Division RAND The research described in this report was sponsored by the Smith Richardson Foundation. The research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of RAND s National Security Research Division. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Shlapak David A. Dire strait military aspects of the China-Taiwan confrontation and options for . policy David A. Shlapak David T Orletsky Barry Wilson. p. cm. Mr-1217-SRF. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-2897-9 1. Taiwan Military policy. 2. China Military policy. 3. United States Military policy. I. Orletsky David T. 1963- II. Wilson Barry 1959- III. Title. S55 2000 355 .03355124 9 dc21 00-062657 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND is a registered trademark. RAND s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Copyright 2000 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means including photocopying recording or information storage and retrieval without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2000 by RAND 1700 Main Street . Box 2138 Santa Monica CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington VA 22202-5050 RAND URL http To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information contact Distribution Services Telephone 310 451-7002 Fax 310 451-6915 Internet order@ PREFACE Even a half century after the birth of the People s Republic of China PRC the Taiwan Strait remains the locus of one of the most dangerous military confrontations in the world. In recent years a series of Chinese military exercises coupled with the .

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