TAILIEUCHUNG - Safety at Work 6 Episode 6

Tham khảo tài liệu 'safety at work 6 episode 6', kỹ thuật - công nghệ, cơ khí - chế tạo máy phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | The collection and use of accident and incident data 275 Whichever method of trend analysis is used a check should be made that any change in direction is more than a random fluctuation. Suppose that in a particular year there were 100 accidents in a company and that in the following year the company proposed to carry out the same amount of work with no changes which would affect risk. In these circumstances we would expect around 100 accidents in the year following the one for which records were available. Note that we would not expect exactly 100 accidents but around 100 accidents. If there were 99 accidents or 101 accidents we would be able to say that this was due to random fluctuation and more generally anything between say 95 and 105 accidents could also be random. The difficulty arises when the number of accidents reaches 85 or 90. Are these numbers due to random fluctuation or is someone doing something which is improving risk control and influencing the accident numbers Statisticians refer to fluctuations in numbers which cannot reasonably be attributed to random fluctuation as significant when they may make statements like There is only a 5 chance that the improvement in accident performance is due to random fluctuations or This deterioration in accident performance would have occurred by chance in only 1 of cases . The working out of the significance of fluctuations in numbers has practical importance in the more advanced techniques of loss management since we can only draw valid conclusions when we know whether or not particular fluctuations in numbers are significant. For this reason it is valuable to have some idea of the significance of fluctuations and trends. One way of doing this is to use historical accident data and work out upper and lower limit lines based on the mean of these data. If we used this technique on the data shown in Figure we could draw up a chart for 2002 which would look like the one shown in Figure . As the monthly

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