TAILIEUCHUNG - SAS/ETS 9.22 User's Guide 274

SAS/Ets User's Guide 274. Provides detailed reference material for using SAS/ETS software and guides you through the analysis and forecasting of features such as univariate and multivariate time series, cross-sectional time series, seasonal adjustments, multiequational nonlinear models, discrete choice models, limited dependent variable models, portfolio analysis, and generation of financial reports, with introductory and advanced examples for each procedure. You can also find complete information about two easy-to-use point-and-click applications: the Time Series Forecasting System, for automatic and interactive time series modeling and forecasting, and the Investment Analysis System, for time-value of money analysis of a variety of investments | 2722 F Chapter 42 Choosing the Best Forecasting Model Figure Selecting an Area for Zoom The zoomed plot should appear as shown in Figure . Time Series Viewer Features F 2723 Figure Zoomed Plot You can repeat the process to zoom in still further. To return to the previous view select the Zoom Out icon the second icon on the window s horizontal toolbar. The third icon on the horizontal toolbar is used to link or unlink the viewer window. By default the viewer is linked meaning that it is automatically updated to reflect selection of a different time series. To see this return to the Series Selection window by clicking on it or using the Window menu or Next Viewer toolbar icon. Select the Electric series in the Time Series Variables list box. Notice that the Time Series Viewer window is updated to show a plot of the ELECTRIC series. Select the Link Unlink icon if you prefer to unlink the viewer so that it is not automatically updated in this way. Successive selections toggle between the linked and unlinked state. A note on the message line informs you of the state of the Time Series Viewer window. When a Time Series Viewer window is linked selecting View Series again makes the linked Viewer window active. When no Time Series Viewer window is linked selecting View Series opens an additional Time Series Viewer window. You can bring up as many Time Series Viewer windows as you want. Having seen the plot in Figure you might suspect that the series is nonstationary and seasonal. You can gain further insight into this by examining the sample autocorrelation function ACF partial autocorrelation function PACF and inverse autocorrelation function IACF plots. To switch the 2724 F Chapter 42 Choosing the Best Forecasting Model display to the autocorrelation plots select the second icon from the top on the vertical toolbar at the right side of the Time Series Viewer. The plot appears as shown in Figure . Figure Sample Autocorrelation Plots Each bar .

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