TAILIEUCHUNG - SAS/ETS 9.22 User's Guide 268

SAS/Ets User's Guide 268. Provides detailed reference material for using SAS/ETS software and guides you through the analysis and forecasting of features such as univariate and multivariate time series, cross-sectional time series, seasonal adjustments, multiequational nonlinear models, discrete choice models, limited dependent variable models, portfolio analysis, and generation of financial reports, with introductory and advanced examples for each procedure. You can also find complete information about two easy-to-use point-and-click applications: the Time Series Forecasting System, for automatic and interactive time series modeling and forecasting, and the Investment Analysis System, for time-value of money analysis of a variety of investments | 2662 F Chapter 39 Getting Started with Time Series Forecasting Figure Model Viewer Parameter Estimates Table For the linear trend model the parameters are the intercept and slope coefficients. The table shows the values of the fitted coefficients together with standard errors and t tests for the statistical significance of the estimates. The model residual variance is also shown. Statistics of Fit Table Select the sixth icon from the top in the vertical toolbar to the right of the table. This switches the Viewer to display a table of statistics of fit computed from the model prediction errors as shown in Figure . The list of statistics displayed is controlled by selecting Statistics of Fit from the Options menu. Changing to a Different Model F 2663 Figure Model Viewer Statistics of Fit Table Changing to a Different Model Select the first icon in the vertical toolbar to the right of the table to return the display to the predicted and actual values plots Figure . Now return to the Develop Models window but do not close the Model Viewer window. You can use the Next Viewer icon in the toolbar or your system s window manager controls to switch windows. You can resize the windows to make them both visible. Select the Double Exponential Smoothing model so that this line of the model list is highlighted. The Model Viewer window is now updated to display a plot of the predicted values for the Double Exponential Smoothing model as shown in Figure . The Model Viewer is automatically updated to display the currently selected model unless you specify Unlink the third icon in the window s horizontal toolbar . 2664 F Chapter 39 Getting Started with Time Series Forecasting Figure Model Viewer Plot for Exponential Smoothing Model Forecasts and Confidence Limits Plots Select the seventh icon from the top in the vertical toolbar to the right of the graph. This switches the Viewer to display a plot of forecast values and confidence limits together .

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