TAILIEUCHUNG - Nothing But Net 2009 Internet Investment Guide 20

Nothing But Net 2009 Internet Investment Guide 20. Leading . Morgan Internet industry analyst Imran Khan provides a comprehensive look at key Internet industry characteristics, drivers, and trends in his seminal industry outlook, Nothing But Net. Geared toward Internet investing novices and experienced professionals, this book provides a detailed look at data points and trends that should be considered when investing in the Internet space. With almost 8 years of technology banking and investing experience, Khan provides a detailed analysis of multiple Internet sectors including online advertising, e-commerce, online travel, and social networking. This book is a must have for. | Morgan Imran Khan 1-212 622-6693 Global Equity Research 05 January 2009 Expedia Overweight We expect Expedia s Y Y revenue to fall in 2009 as the company faces decreased travel volume falling ADRs difficult FX ratios and reduced airline capacity. However we do think some of the negative economic effects will be slightly offset by strength in non-transaction revenue streams improved conversion rates and careful cost control measures. Expedia trades at our F 09 EBITDA estimate of 756M hence our Overweight rating. We are introducing a 12 December 2009 price target. We think 2009 gross bookings will decline 3 on a Y Y basis. We expect domestic gross bookings to decline 3 due to airline capacity cuts weak ADRs and lower volumes. We think European gross bookings will decline 10 as we see European travel weakness mimicking that of the US and expect FX effects to contribute an additional 13 points of declines. Non-transaction revenue could slightly offset bookings weakness. Although we expect the growth rate to decelerate we think insurance waivers co-branded credit cards and expanded ad revenue streams on transaction sites will supply some lift to the 2009 revenue growth rate. Expense cuts should aid bottom-line performance. Management has expressed its intention to manage sales and marketing spend around revenue performance. Additionally we think there is slight room for cost reductions in call centers credit card processing fees and air fulfillment expenses. 2009 drivers. In our view the following factors will drive EXPE shares in 2009 1 advertising and other non-transaction performance 2 cost savings returns on prior investments and 3 ADR and air capacity trends. Maintaining 4Q 08 estimates. We are looking for revenue EBITDA and pro forma EPS of 648M 166M and . Our current and newly introduced 2010 estimates are in the table below Table 111 Expedia Financial Snapshot in millions except per share data EXPE 4Q 08E F 08E F 09E F

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