TAILIEUCHUNG - GSM and UMTS (P7)

Compared to today’s reality, the mobile and wireless communications evolution perspective of the world, at the start of 1985, looks retrospectively rather conservative. While the promise of an accelerated development of mobile communications was sensed as a likely possibility, due notably to the anticipated success of GSM, the most optimistic scenarios for market deployment called for a few million subscribers at the turn of the century. | GSM and UMTS The Creation of Global Mobile Communication Edited by Friedhelm Hillebrand Copyright 2001 John Wiley Sons Ltd ISBNs 0-470-84322-5 Hardback 0-470-845546 Electronic Chapter 7 The UMTS Related Work of the European Commission UMTS Task Force UMTS Forum and GSM Association Section 1 The European Research Joao Schwarz da Silva1 Introduction Compared to today s reality the mobile and wireless communications evolution perspective of the world at the start of 1985 looks retrospectively rather conservative. While the promise of an accelerated development of mobile communications was sensed as a likely possibility due notably to the anticipated success of GSM the most optimistic scenarios for market deployment called for a few million subscribers at the turn of the century. Some 10 years later there were about 13 million users of mobile communications in Europe and estimates suggested that the market potential was of the order of 50 million at the turn of the century and will be 100 million by 2005. Back than it was also felt that while the fixed telephones penetration rate would not exceed 50 personal mobile communications in all forms would perhaps reach nearly 80 of Europe s population. Research into Advanced Communications in Europe RACE RACE Definition Phase In 1985 the telecommunications computing and broadcasting sectors accounted for an annual turnover of over 500 billion Euros world-wide. Telecommunications were central to the performance of the services sector and crucial to the business competitiveness. It 1 The views expressed in this section are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of his affiliation entity. 116 GSM and UMTS The Creation of Global Mobile Communication was clearly felt that the prosperity of Europe was critically dependent of good communications. On the demand side the call for new and more sophisticated services and applications was expected to change rather rapidly with businesses needing

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