TAILIEUCHUNG - HOW TO THINK LIKE BENJAMIN GRAHAM AND INVEST LIKE WARREN BUFFETT PART 2

Knowing the EMT story will enable you to evaluate advice based on it, including advice about the value of diversification and ways of measuring risk. | C HAPTER 2 PROZAC MARKET Along and interesting story lies behind the ever-popular efficient market theory a story every investor should know. Knowing the EMT story will enable you to evaluate advice based on it including advice about the value of diversification and ways of measuring risk. It will also help you decide for yourself whether to believe EMT. That is important because if you believe in market efficiency you will adopt a style and philosophy of investing very different from the one you will be smart to adopt if you do not. Investors who have already concluded that EMT is not the best account of how stock markets work could skip this chapter without being cheated but even they may discover ways in which EMT has unwittingly affected their investing habits. All readers will also discover that the history of EMT is fascinating. It is a story about research designed to enlarge knowledge to explain and understand the world research whose results are intermittently neglected and then overblown. The story tells us that EMT is not the last word on how stock markets work even though the power it has had over investors and teachers for several decades sometimes makes it seem that people think it is the last OBSCURITY EMT traces its history to the random walk model of stock prices the sensible idea that stock prices move in a way that cannot be predicted with any systematic accuracy. The model dates back to 1900 when it was elaborated in a doctoral dissertation by the French mathematician Louis Bachelier that though obscure in its time is now famous. That dissertation investigated linear correlation in the prices of options and futures traded on the French Bourse and concluded that such price changes behaved according to a random walk 17 Copyright 2001 The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. Click Here for Terms of Use 18 A Tale of Two Markets Bachelier s work was not widely noticed when it was published perhaps because the mathematical parts of it preceded by

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