TAILIEUCHUNG - Estimating sea level rise for Vietnam East Sea

Sea level rise for Vietnam East Sea in the 21st century was determined under both RCP and RCP scenarios. Changes in sea level of the Vietnam East Sea due to dynamic and thermosteric processes was estimated using results of different Atmosphere - Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCMs) under the prescribed method in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Changes in sea level due to ice melting and land water storage was determined using a transfer function for global water balance based on the contribution of each sea level rise contributing component for different regions. Changes in sea level as a result of the vertical motion of the Earth’s crust due to changes in the Earth’s cryosphere was determined using the ICE5G models. The results showed that for the RCP scenario, by the end of the 21st century, the average sea level rise is 76 cm, with estimated values varying between 52 cm and 106 cm at the 5% and 95% confidence intervals, respectively. For the RCP scenario, the average sea level rise is 52 cm, with values of 33 cm and 75 cm at the 5% and 95% confidence interval, respectively. The sea level rise scenario determined for the Vietnam East Sea is slightly higher in comparison with the globally estimated results in AR5. | ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES CLIMATOLOGY Estimating sea level rise for Vietnam East Sea Thuc Tran1 Xuan Hien Nguyen1 Thi Lan Huong Huynh1 Van Tra Tran1 2 Ngoc Tien Duong1 Thi Thu Ha Doan1 1Vietnam Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Climate Change Vietnam 2TUDortmund University Germany Received 30 July 2016 accepted 1 December 2016 Abstract Sea level rise for Vietnam East Sea in the 21st century was determined under both RCP and RCP scenarios. Changes in sea level of the Vietnam East Sea due to dynamic and thermosteric processes was estimated using results of different Atmosphere - Ocean General Circulation Model AOGCMs under the prescribed method in the IPCC s Fifth Assessment Report AR5 . Changes in sea level due to ice melting and land water storage was determined using a transfer function for global water balance based on the contribution of each sea level rise contributing component for different regions. Changes in sea level as a result of the vertical motion of the Earth s crust due to changes in the Earth s cryosphere was determined using the ICE5G models. The results showed that for the RCP scenario by the end of the 21st century the average sea level rise is 76 cm with estimated values varying between 52 cm and 106 cm at the 5 and 95 confidence intervals respectively. For the RCP scenario the average sea level rise is 52 cm with values of 33 cm and 75 cm at the 5 and 95 confidence interval respectively. The sea level rise scenario determined for the Vietnam East Sea is slightly higher in comparison with the globally estimated results in AR5. Keywords climate change sea level rise scenarios Vietnam East Sea. Classification number Introduction Global average sea level has increased significantly between 1920 and 1950 especially after 1993 until now 1 . The significant increase after 1993 was also identified from the assessment of sea level using satellite data 2 . In Vietnam tidal gauging data between 1960 and 2013 showed an increase of sea

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