TAILIEUCHUNG - The impact of oil prices on the economy of Vietnam

In this paper we study the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic performance by investigating the impact of oil price shocks on key macroeconomic variables of Vietnam over the 2001–2012 period. | ! ! 142!! Nguyen Thi Lien Hoa et. al. / Journal of Economic Development. 22(4), 142-159 ! The Impact of Oil Prices on the Economy of Vietnam NGUYEN THI LIEN HOA University of Economics HCMC – hoatcdn@ TRAN THU GIANG University of Economics HCMC – NGUYEN LE NGAN TRANG University of Economics HCMC – trangnln@ ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Article history: In this paper we study the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic performance by investigating the impact of oil price shocks on key macroeconomic variables of Vietnam over the 2001–2012 period. In order to test the relationship between oil prices and the value of industrial production, we use cointegration method to consider the long-term relationship and Error Correction Model (ECM) to ponder the short-term one. The test results show that the price of oil and the value of industrial production in Vietnam are positively correlated in the long term, whereas in the short term the volatility of oil prices in the last two months will negatively affect the fluctuation in the value of the current industrial production. Received: Jan. 15 2015 Received in revised form: Jul. 24 2015 Accepted: Sep. 15 2015 Keywords: Oil prices, cointegration, error correction model. ! ! Nguyen Thi Lien Hoa et. al. / Journal of Economic Development. 22(4), 142-159 !143! ! 1.! Introduction Today, the world economy depends mainly on the oil energy, and consumption of oil has increased constantly; therefore, crude oil plays a leading role as a key energy source for the world. Oil prices also have a huge impact on the development of the global economy because most industries are directly or indirectly dependent on this .

• Kinh tế học
• Oil prices
• Error correction model
• Economy of Vietnam
• Macroeconomic performance
• Industrial production
• Stock returns
• Long run association of oil prices
• Stock market index in Indonesia
• Oil crude oil prices
• Crude oil prices
• Public spending
• Trend analysis
• Volatility of oil prices
• Oil prices lowering year
• Covid 19 pandemic
• Generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model
• Forecasting crude oil prices
• Daily prices of crude oil
• Food prices
• Var model
• Unit root test
• Food inflation in Kazakhstan
• Oil prices on the food inflation
• Time series
• Structural break
• Stock prices
• Stock prices in saudi Arabia
• Asymmetric causality
• Asymmetric causality analysis
• Stock prices in BRICS T countries
• The impact of high oil prices
• The global economy
• Crude oil import price
• High oil prices
• Net impact on the global economy
• Oil revenues
• Mortgages and real estate loans
• Housing market
• Relationship between oil prices
• Oil price
• Non linear autoregressive distributed lag
• Net oil importing country
• Granger causality
• Vietnamese stock market index
• Economic growth of Vietnam
• Crude oil
• Stock market
• Global prices
• Stock market nexus in Indonesia
• Global prices of crude oil
• Macro economic variables
• Autoregressive distributed lag
• Bound test
• Evidence from BRICS countries
• Relationship between crude oil prices
• Crude oil price
• EUR/USD exchange rate
• Gold price
• Auto regressive distributed lag
• Co integration
• Spot prices
• Futures prices
• Price discovery
• Futures prices of refined soy oil
• Stock market returns
• Oil price fluctuations
• Exchange rate
• Interest rate
• Natural gas prices
• Natural gas market
• Crude oil marke
• Changes in demand
• Oil sector revenue
• Saudi arabia
• Optional resources
• Stock return
• Volatility spillovers
• Var Garch model
• Oil prices and stock returns
• Developing countries
• Liquefied petroleum gas
• Co movement
• Wavelet analysis
• Propane and oil prices
• Food price
• Partial structural change model
• Partial structural change modeling
• Oil markets in Nigeria
• Oil price exert positive
• Industrial production index
• Panel cointegration
• Panel cointegration test
• Oil importing countries
• Institutional ownership
• Evidence of oil
• Gas mining companies
• Garch process
• Time varying
• Dollar exchange rates
• Volatility transmission
• Causality in variance
• Conditional correlations
• Multivariate garch
• Sector indexes
• Portfolio decisions