TAILIEUCHUNG - Lecture Statistical techniques in business and economics (14/e): Chapter 16 - Lind, Marchal, Wathen

Chapter 16 - Time series and forecasting. When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to: Define the components of a time series, compute moving average, determine a linear trend equation, compute a trend equation for a nonlinear trend, use a trend equation to forecast future time periods and to develop seasonally adjusted forecasts, determine and interpret a set of seasonal indexes, deseasonalize data using a seasonal index, test for autocorrelation. | Time Series and Forecasting Chapter 16 Goals Define the components of a time series Compute moving average Determine a linear trend equation Compute a trend equation for a nonlinear trend Use a trend equation to forecast future time periods and to develop seasonally adjusted forecasts Determine and interpret a set of seasonal indexes Deseasonalize data using a seasonal index Test for autocorrelation TIME SERIES is a collection of data recorded over a period of time (weekly, monthly, quarterly), an analysis of history, that can be used by management to make current decisions and plans based on long-term forecasting. It usually assumes past pattern to continue into the future Components of a Time Series Secular Trend – the smooth long term direction of a time series Cyclical Variation – the rise and fall of a time series over periods longer than one year Seasonal Variation – Patterns of change in a time series within a year which tends to repeat each year Irregular Variation – .

• Kinh tế học
• Statistical techniques
• Statistical techniques in business
• Statistical techniques in economics
• Descriptive statistics
• Time series
• Statistical inference
• Independent samples
• Statistical process control
• Quality management
• Random observation
• Sampling methods
• Central limit theorem
• Confidence intervals
• Point estimator
• Confidence interval
• Hypothesis testing
• Alternative hypothesis
• Analysis of variance
• F distribution
• Linear regression
• Coefficient of correlation
• Multiple regression
• Multiple regression analysis
• Chi square applications
• Test of hypothesis
• Analysis of ranked data
• Kruskal Wallis test
• Index numbers
• Consumer price index
• Linear trend equation
• Decision making
• Organize information
• The role of statistics
• Qualitative variable
• Describing data
• Frequency distribution
• Central tendency
• Standard deviation
• Ungrouped data
• Probability concepts
• Random experiment
• Discrete probability distributions
• Continuous random variables
• Decision theory
• Decision alternative
• Inferential statistics
• Frequency tables
• Numerical measures