TAILIEUCHUNG - Ph13-Danielsson-GlobFinSyst-wm2

(BQ) Part 2 book "Global financial systems" has contents: Currency crisis models, financial regulations, bailouts, dangerous financial instruments, failures in risk management and regulations before the crisis, the ongoing crisis: 2007–2009 phase, ongoing developments in financial regulation, sovereign debt crises | 12 Currency crisis models Countries that peg their exchange rates are susceptible to currency crises if the exchange rate is out of alignment with the underlying economic fundamentals, especially if the exchange rate is overvalued, the case considered in this chapter. This often leads to speculative attacks, where speculators aim to force a devaluation by a massive sale of the currency on the open market. If speculators believe that the exchange rate is sustainable, and the government is determined to keep the peg, they will act in a way that supports the currency regime. If, however, they lose that belief, the speculators may force a realignment. Mechanically, a speculative attack can be implemented by borrowing large amounts of domestic currency and immediately selling it for a foreign currency, or alternatively by entering into forward foreign exchange contracts. Once the peg is abandoned, the speculator can realise her profits by converting foreign currency to domestic currency at the more advantageous rate and repay the loan, or buy the foreign currency at the now cheap rate. A key factor in whether an exchange rate regime is sustainable is the strength of the underlying economic fundamentals, referring to variables like inflation, the balance of payments, unemployment, economic growth and the budget deficit. A country with strong fundamentals is better able to maintain its exchange rate policies and repel speculative attacks, which in turn makes it less likely that an attack will be launched in the first place. Chapter 12 Currency crisis models Links to other chapters This chapter relates directly to Chapter 11 (currency markets). Key concepts ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Speculative attacks First-generation currency crisis models Second-generation currency crisis moments Global games models Argentina ERM crisis Readings for this chapter The specific readings in this chapter relate to the 1G, the 2G and the global .

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