TAILIEUCHUNG - Theoretical model for cascading effects analyses

This paper describes a theoretical model for the cascading effects scenario analysis, whose general methodology and operational procedures are applicable to all the hazards and elements at risk categories identified. | International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 30 (2018) 199–215 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction journal homepage: Theoretical model for cascading effects analyses Giulio Zuccaro a b a,b a,⁎ , Daniela De Gregorio , Mattia F. Leone T a PLINIVS Study Centre, . Interdepartmental Centre, University of Naples Federico II, Italy Department of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, Italy A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T Keywords: Cascading events Interconnected risk Impact assessment Vulnerability assessment Emergency planning In case of exceptional events of natural or anthropogenic type, the elements at risk (people, buildings, infrastructures, economy, etc.) are often hit by sequences of ‘cascading events’, function of time and space, caused by the triggering event (earthquake, landslide, volcanic eruption, fire, electric failure, etc.). Generally, sequences of events can involve the same element at risk, and the combined effects of cascading phenomena can strongly amplify the impact caused by single events in terms of extension of the affected area and damage level. The final impact on the territory can be significant and require to be carefully assessed in terms of emergency planning and management. This paper discusses from a theoretical point of view the modelling needs and the main issues to be taken into account in the development of simulation tools aiming to include cascading effects analyses to effectively support decision-makers in their preparedness and disaster mitigation strategies in the framework of emergency planning at local, national and international level. The model aims at developing cascading effects scenarios at different level of detail, depending on the availability of inventory/exposure data for the different categories of elements at risk and hazard/impact models for the various hazard sources. It has

• Môi trường
• Recent significant disasters
• The elementary bricks model
• The theoretical model
• Cascading effects analyses
• The development of simulation tools aiming