TAILIEUCHUNG - Precipitation scenarios in Ho Chi Minh city in the context of climate change

This work aimed at developing precipitation scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) corresponding to scenarios of , , , and . By means of data collecting and processing and SimCLIM software, results showed the average annual precipitation in HCMC would increase over the years and RCP scenarios: from % to 24 % in 2100 compared to that in the period of 1986-2005. | Vietnam Journal of Science and Technology 55 (4C) (2017) 115-121 PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS IN HO CHI MINH CITY IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE Nguyen Ky Phung1, Nguyen Van Tin2, Le Ngoc Tuan3, * Department of Science and Technology – Hochiminh City, 244 Dien Bien Phu, Ward 7, District 3, Ho Chi Minh City 1 2 Sub-Institute of HydroMeteorology and Climate change, 19 Nguyen Thi Minh Khai, Ben Nghe Ward, Distritc 1, Ho Chi Minh City University of Science – Vietnam National University Hochiminh City, 227 Nguyen Van Cu, Ward 4, District 5, Hoc Chi Minh City 3 * Email: lntuan@ Received: 15 July 2017; Accepted for publication: 14 October 2017 ABSTRACT This work aimed at developing precipitation scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) corresponding to scenarios of , , , and . By means of data collecting and processing and SimCLIM software, results showed the average annual precipitation in HCMC would increase over the years and RCP scenarios: from % to 24 % in 2100 compared to that in the period of 1986-2005. The dry seasonal precipitation would tend to decrease while the rainy seasonal one would increase. By space, average annual and seasonal precipitations in HCMC decrease from the northwest to the southeast: the highest one are in the north (Cu Chi, Hoc Mon) and the city center while the lowest are in the coastal area (Can Gio). These results are an important basis for assessing impacts and vulnerability due to precipitation variations in particular and climate change in general in HCMC. Keywords: climate change, climate change scenario, rainfall, precipitation. 1. INTRODUCTION Many studies on climate change (CC) have been conducted from local to national and global scales due to its impacts on the socio-economic and environment [1]. There are 3 main groups of CC studies where CC scenario generation is the important task [2]. CC scenarios contain various driving forces of CC, including population growth and .

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