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We’ve already made progress toward this goal – last year, America produced more oil than we had in the last seven years. We’re taking steps to encourage more offshore oil exploration and production – as long as it’s safe and responsible. And, because we know we can’t just drill our way out of our energy challenge, we’re reducing our dependence on oil by increasing our production of natural gas and biofuels, and increasing our fuel efficiency. Last year, we announced ground- breaking fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks that will save consumers thousands of dollars and. | The U.S. Automotive Market and Industry in 2025 CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH June 2011 The statements findings and conclusions herein are those of the authors at the Center for Automotive Research. Table of Contents Acknowledgements.iv Introduction.1 Section I The U.S. Motor Vehicle Market Outlook in 2025 A Baseline for Growth .2 Households and Vehicles per Household.2 Urban and Non-Urban Split in Households.3 Growth in the Light Vehicle Fleet.4 Section II Pathways of Fuel Economy Improvements and Costs Through 2025.6 The Cost of Fuel Economy Technologies.6 Retail Price Equivalent RPE .7 Modeling Pathways.8 Extended Mass Reduction 15 Mass Reduction with Compounding .9 Spark-Ignited Extended Mass Reduction with Stop Start SI-E-SS .10 Plug-in Hybrid with Mass Reduction PHEV .10 Battery Electric Vehicle with Mass Reduction BEV .11 Cost Reduction Learning Curve and Economies-of-Scale .11 Four Scenarios for Higher Fuel Economy Mandates and the Per Vehicle Cost of these Scenarios.13 Scenario Description . 13 Section III The Economics of the U.S. Motor Vehicle Market and Industry in 2025.23 The Effect of Mandates on the Net Price for Motor Vehicles.23 Present Value of Fuel Economy Savings.27 VMT Estimation .29 VMT rebound rate .31 The Cost of Electricity.35 Cost Benefit Analysis of Higher Fuel Economy Technologies.36 The Calculation of Net Prices.38 The Macro-economic Costs of Higher Fuel Economy Technologies.39 The Baseline Forecast for 2025.39 Impact of Higher Net Price on the Quantity of Vehicle Demand Short-Run and Long-Run Price and Income Elasticities of New Vehicle Demand.39 U.S. Vehicle Production and Employment in 2025.43 Center for Automotive Research 2011 i Section IV Conclusions and Recommendations for Policy.47 A Policy Recommendation.51 Appendix I Fuel Economy Technology Segmentation.52 Appendix II Forecast of U.S. Light Vehicle Demand.54 Appendix III Calculation of Short and Long Run Price and Income Elasticities.55 Calculation of Short-Run Price and .
