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ACCOUNTING FOR POPULATION AGEING IN TAX MICROSIMULATION MODELLING BY SURVEY REWEIGHTING*

‘Professions’ have been subject to a variety of theoretical schema that attempt to identify their unique characteristics or traits: the features that can be regarded as the basis for the discrimination between forms of occupational organization and control that are professional and those that are not (Saks, 1983; Abbott, 1988). This elaboration of the essential traits of professions is more than a professional discourse. It remains an influential strand within the ‘sociology of the professions’ following from the Parsonian structural- functional analyses of professions (Greenwood, 1957; Goode, 1957; Parsons, 1968; cf. Robson and Cooper, 1990). Theorists have developed studies. | ACCOUNTING FOR POPULATION AGEING IN TAX MICROSIMULATION MODELLING BY SURVEY REWEIGHTING LIXIN CAI JOHN CREEDY and GUYONNE KALB University of Melbourne This paper investigates the use of sample reweighting in a behavioural tax microsimulation model to examine the implications for government taxes and expenditure of population ageing in Australia. First a calibration approach to sample reweighting is described producing new weights that achieve specified population totals for selected variables. Second the performance of the Australian Bureau of Statistics ABS weights provided with the 2000-2001 Survey of Income and Housing Cost SIHC was examined and it was found that reweighting does not improve the simulation outcomes for the 2001 situation so the original ABS weights were retained for 2001. Third the implications of changes in the age distribution of the population were examined based on population projections to 2050. A pure change in the age distribution was examined by keeping the aggregate population size fixed and changing only the relative frequencies in different age-gender groups. Finally the effects of a policy change to benefit taper rates in Australia were compared for 2001 and 2050 population weights. It is suggested that this type of exercise provides an insight into the implications for government income tax revenue and social security expenditure of changes in the population indicating likely pressures for policy changes. I. Introduction The aim of this paper is to investigate the use of sample reweighting in a behavioural tax microsimulation model to examine the implications for government taxes and expenditure of population ageing in Australia. Tax microsimulation models are based on large-scale cross-sectional surveys containing substantial information about the characteristics of individuals and households. Each household has a sample weight provided by the statistical agency responsible for collecting the data and these weights are used to .