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The main goals of this chapter are to: Understand the role of forecasting as a basis for supply chain planning; identify the basic components of demand: average, trend, seasonal, and random variation; show how to make a time series forecast using moving averages, exponential smoothing, and regression;. | Forecasting Chapter 03 Learning Objectives Understand the role of forecasting as a basis for supply chain planning Identify the basic components of demand: average, trend, seasonal, and random variation Show how to make a time series forecast using moving averages, exponential smoothing, and regression Use decomposition to forecast when trend and seasonality is present Show how to measure forecast error Describe the common qualitative forecasting techniques, such as the Delphi method and collaborative forecasting The Role of Forecasting Forecasting is a vital function and impacts every significant management decision Finance and accounting use forecasts as the basis for budgeting and cost control Marketing relies on forecasts to make key decisions such as new product planning and personnel compensation Production uses forecasts to select suppliers, determine capacity requirements, and to drive decisions about purchasing, staffing, and inventory Different roles require different . | Forecasting Chapter 03 Learning Objectives Understand the role of forecasting as a basis for supply chain planning Identify the basic components of demand: average, trend, seasonal, and random variation Show how to make a time series forecast using moving averages, exponential smoothing, and regression Use decomposition to forecast when trend and seasonality is present Show how to measure forecast error Describe the common qualitative forecasting techniques, such as the Delphi method and collaborative forecasting The Role of Forecasting Forecasting is a vital function and impacts every significant management decision Finance and accounting use forecasts as the basis for budgeting and cost control Marketing relies on forecasts to make key decisions such as new product planning and personnel compensation Production uses forecasts to select suppliers, determine capacity requirements, and to drive decisions about purchasing, staffing, and inventory Different roles require different forecasting approaches Decisions about overall directions require strategic forecasts Tactical forecasts are used to guide day-to-day decisions Components of Demand Excel: Components of Demand Time Series Analysis Using the past to predict the future Forecasting Method Selection Guide Forecasting Method Amount of Historical Data Data Pattern Forecast Horizon Simple moving average 6 to 12 months; weekly data are often used Stationary (i.e. no trend or seasonality) Short Weighted moving average and simple exponential smoothing 5 to 10 observations needed to start Stationary Short Exponential smoothing with trend 5 to 10 observations needed to start Stationary and trend Short Linear regression 10 to 20 observations Stationary, trend, and seasonality Short to Medium Forecast Error Measurements Ideally, MAD will be zero (no forecasting error) Larger values of MAD indicate a less accurate model MAPE scales the forecast error to the magnitude of demand Tracking signal indicates whether forecast .
